December 19th, 2007
Seventy percent of television watched by Tivo owners is time shifted according Daniel Erasmus as cited in Deep Focus: A Report on the Future of Independent Media by Andrew Blau of the National Alliance for Media Arts and Culture. Andrew continues, “Forrester Research forecasts that when 30 million homes in the US have PVRs, 76 percent of advertisers will cut their TV ad spending, a quarter of them by more than 40 percent. Whether that fundamentally undermines the economics of broadcasting, or whether it frees up billions of dollars for other forms of media support, is unknown.”
So, how many people now have PVR/DVRs and how many billions of ad dollars are at stake here?
Bruce Leichtman stated that more than one in every five US households now has a DVR and he forecasts that the number of US households with DVRs will grow to over 60 million by the end of 2011. My estimate of the number of US households with DVRs is 15-20 million today.
The annual global TV Ad spend nearly $170 billion according to ZenithOptimedia.com. US TV ad spending will be roughly
$100 $76 billion this year. If the Forrester predictions are true then more than 10 billion dollars of TV ad spending in the US alone may shift to other ad mediums.
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